Abstract
Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies on future scenario simulations lacked research regarding the driving factors of changes in carbon storages within urban expansion, and the economic value accounting for changes in carbon storages. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China, and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that (1) Wuhan's urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17km2 and is expected to continuously expand to 1349-1945.01km2 by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12 × 106t during 1980-2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15 × 106t, 4.7 × 106t and 4.05 × 106t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as BS > CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being.
Highlights
Enhancing the carbon sequestration function of terrestrial ecosystems is essential to reducing carbon emissions and addressing the major challenges of climate warming (Fang et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2020)
After comparing the simulated land use with the actual in 2010, using Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), we found that when sampling rate was 5%, the Kappa coefficient was 0.87, the overall accuracy (OA) index was 0.917, and the Figure of Merit (FoM) was 0.205, indicating that the model was of high accuracy and can be applied to the requirements of this study for the following simulation
Cropland, forest land and wetland were mainly occupied by urban expansion
Summary
Enhancing the carbon sequestration function of terrestrial ecosystems is essential to reducing carbon emissions and addressing the major challenges of climate warming (Fang et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2020). The impact of land use change on the dramatic increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration is second only to fossil energy burning It markedly influences carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems (Chuai et al, 2011; Stuiver, 1978; Tang and Peng, 2018). As the most drastic land use change in the process of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation (He et al, 2016), urban expansion led a large number of ecological lands (e.g. cropland, forest land, and grassland) to be transformed into urban construction land (Feng et al, 2020; Sallustio et al, 2015) This process directly caused the loss of high carbon density land (Wu et al, 2016) and altered the process, structure, and function of the natural ecosystem (Baumann et al, 2016; Houghton et al, 2012). It is of great significance to urban ecosystem protection and sustainable urban development
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
