Abstract
Carbon storage is closely connected to the productivities and climate regulation capacities of ecosystems. Assessing the effects of urban expansion on carbon storage has become increasingly important for achieving urban sustainability. This study analyzed the effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage in Xuzhou City, China during 2000–2025. The cellular automata (CA) model was developed to simulate future urban expansion under three scenarios, namely, the business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (ECO), and planning strengthened (PLS) scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was further applied to explore the consequences of urban expansion on carbon storage. The results show that urban expansion resulted in 6.099 Tg of carbon storage loss from 2000–2015. Moreover, significant differences in the effects of the urban expansion scenarios on carbon storage were identified in terms of both magnitude and spatial pattern from 2015–2025. Compared with the other scenarios, the PLS scenario could be considered as a good option that would allow future development to achieve the objectives of the lowest carbon storage losses. The findings improve the understanding of the effects of urban expansion on carbon storage and may be used to support urban planning and management.
Highlights
Ecosystem services (ESs) affect human well-being and refer to the benefits that people directly or indirectly obtain from a natural ecological system [1]
The annual growth area of built-up land increased from 15 km2yr−1 during 2000–2005 to 61 km2yr−1 during 2010–2015, which implies that the expansion rate grew over the study period in Xuzhou City
This study proposed an integration of the cellular automata (CA) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models that can be utilized to effectively evaluate the impacts on carbon storage due to urban expansion
Summary
Ecosystem services (ESs) affect human well-being and refer to the benefits that people directly or indirectly obtain from a natural ecological system [1]. The relationship between urban expansion and ESs is one of the most crucial issues in ecosystem and land research all over the world [6,7]. While urban areas currently cover only a small proportion of the global land surface [12], their ecosystem structures and functions have significant impacts on global change [13]. Due to remarkable urban expansion, increasing areas of non-urban land have been transformed to urban land, which has caused the variation of terrestrial carbon storage in ecosystems, with serious consequences to the climate system as well as human life. Exploration of the relationship between urban expansion and carbon storage can offer a better understanding of the interactions between humans and ecosystems as well as support effective urban planning
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