Impact of tropical Atlantic SST anomaly on ENSO in the NUIST‐CFS1.0 Hindcasts

Abstract

AbstractUsing both observations and ensemble hindcasts of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST‐CFS1.0) for the period of 1983–2020, the leading modes of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic in boreal spring and summer (March–April–May–June–July–August, MAM‐JJA) and their connections with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), partial‐correlation, and composite analyses. In both observations and hindcasts, the first EOF mode is characterized by a basin‐wide SSTA pattern, and the second mode features a meridional dipole pattern. The meridional dipole mode cannot trigger ENSO, while the basin‐wide SST warming mode contributes to a subsequent La Niña via both north‐tropical and equatorial pathways. The north‐tropical pathway involves a low‐level anomalous anticyclone over North Pacific as a Matsuno‐Gill‐type response to the basin‐wide SST warming, related to a North Pacific Meridional Mode characterized with a cold SSTA and north‐easterly wind coupling over the northeast tropical Pacific, and finally triggers La Niña via the seasonal footprinting mechanism. This pathway is less important in the hindcasts than in observations. The equatorial pathway is tightly linked to the Kelvin wave, characteristic of an eastward propagation of the coupled pattern of SST and low‐level winds and a wedge‐like 500‐hPa air temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and western equatorial Pacific Oceans, which is more significant in the hindcasts than in observations. Further composite analyses confirm that, even without the effect of the preceding ENSO, a basin‐wide tropical Atlantic SST warming favours the development of La Niña.