Impact of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon on the Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 Models

Abstract

AbstractThe impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) has been systematically investigated in observations. This study focuses on the ability of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce the observed relationship between the SCSSM and IOD and the relevant physical mechanisms. All 23 models reproduce significant correlations between the SCSSM and IOD during boreal summer [June–August (JJA)], whereas the influence of the SCSSM on the IOD varies considerably across the CMIP5 models. To explore the causes, all models are divided into two groups. Models that successfully simulated both the correlations between the SCSSM and JJA IOD and of the SCSSM and JJA IOD with precipitation over the western North Pacific and Maritime Continent are classified as Type I, and these produce stronger low-level wind anomalies over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean. The stronger low-level wind anomalies enhance local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies via positive wind–evaporation–SST (WES) and wind–thermocline–SST (Bjerknes) feedbacks. This corresponds to a strengthening of IOD events due to the increased zonal gradient of SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, Type II models perform poorly in representing the relationship between the SCSSM and JJA IOD or relevant physical processes, corresponding to weaker WES and Bjerknes feedbacks, and produce weaker IOD events. These results demonstrate that the better the model simulation of the critical physical processes, the larger contribution of the SCSSM to the IOD.