Impact of the Increase in Electric Vehicles on Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions in Portugal

Abstract

The sector with the higher weight in final energy consumption is the transport sector, reflecting the one responsible for most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this context, and given the increasing penetration of zero or low GHG emissions vehicles with high energy efficiency, this work intends to contribute to the future identification of the impact of the transport sector on energy consumption and resulting emissions. It aims at identifying the energy consumption in the sector and quantify the GHG levels from the comparative analysis of the increase of electric based vehicle fleet in detriment of those based in internal combustion engines, considering five scenarios until the year 2030. The study is applied in mainland Portugal considering the fleet of light passenger and commercial vehicles, which comprise the vast majority of the Portuguese fleet. The Bottom-up model, where the hierarchical tree detailing is constructed from detail to the whole, is applied to the study to determine the energy consumption and GHG emissions variables. The analysis is performed through the application of the simulation tool Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) of scenario-based and integrated modelling, herein utilized to determine energy consumption and account for GHG emission sources. Results show that the increase of electric vehicles directly influences the reduction of GHG emissions and final energy consumption while electric energy consumption increases.