Impact of the Future Exploration and Oil Production in the Brazilian Energy Matrix

Abstract

Abstract The global energy production reflects an excessive percentage of non-renewable energy. Therefore, a great volume of investment on renewable energy became a serious matter in order to mitigate the damage caused by the consumption of energy from fossil sources. On the other hand, Brazil’s oil companies are living a decisive moment in terms of investments in energy bases, because there is a great demand for capital resources to develop the latest discoveries of enormous non-renewable supplies. In this context, this paper describes the impact of the projects announced by the oil and gas industries in the Brazilian energy matrix. The data comes from the plans presented by the major oil companies that operate in Brazil basins, mainly in pre-salt region, and from reports published by EPE (Energy Research Company – Government of Brazil). This work involves projections from 2011 to 2020 and it was made assuming three global economic scenarios: recession, stability and economic growth. Projections are treated in a comprehensive knowledge by a simple econometric model and based on the investments announced by the oil industry of the country. Studies take into account the fossil and renewable energy projections under assumptions from the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion in 2020 produced by the National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE, in the Portuguese-language acronym). The results indicate viable economic projects in the renewable energy for the Brazilian oil and gas companies (energy corporations), primarily biofuels, wind and solar power, in the expense of some oil production projects in their portfolios. Brazil is experiencing a great time to develop the renewable energy sources that is made by other countries and if these changes accelerate, it will be the potential to improve its economy by creating millions of jobs. As main conclusion, the decisions on investment in renewable energy with capital acquired from the pre-salt projects will determine the future of the Brazilian energy matrix. The main goal of this paper is to indicate a transition to a cleaner energy matrix considering an alternative investment plan, and show some fundamental concepts to illustrate how the renewable energy can be important for the oil and gas companies’ subsistence in the next generations.