Impact of temperature and solar irradiance in shadow covering scenarios via two-way sensitivity analysis for rooftop solar photovoltaics

Abstract

ABSTRACT Solar irradiance and temperature are two primary factors that affect the energy generation efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, meaning that climate change may significantly impact the production of solar energy in the future. In this study, a two-way sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the energy generation potential under future climate change conditions, and conditions of shadow covering are also considered. The simulation results indicate that the impact of solar irradiance causes the most variation in energy generation, and that shadow covering has a weak impact on the output. In the one-way sensitivity analysis, solar irradiance makes a ± 18% difference in energy generation, whereas shadow covering represents about ± 2%. In the future trend of climate change in the world and Taiwan, the energy generation potential can decrease up to 21% and increase 8%, respectively, mainly corresponded by solar irradiance. We suggest that compared with the issue of temperature, the efficiency of solar irradiance usage is more important, especially in view of the global trend toward solar irradiance loss. Taiwan also suffers the issue, but the different trend of climate change impact may make the challenge different.