Impact of synoptic circulation patterns on renewable energy-related variables over China

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on the day-to-day variabilities of renewable energy- and demand-related variables (temperature, wind speed, and sunshine duration) over China in winter. Circulation patterns are classified by self-organizing maps (SOMs), and six categories are obtained, including two opposite northwest-southeast dipole modes, two opposite widespread monopoles, and two modes with cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation over northeastern China.It is found that the position of temperature anomalies has a clear association with the anomalous circulation, the high wind speed is generally situated in the south or west sector of cyclonic circulations, while the long sunshine duration is associated with northerly airflow and small cloud cover on the west of cyclonic circulations. Additionally, the cyclonic flow over northeastern China offers the optimum weather condition for wind and solar resources, whereas the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau under the control of a positive-negative northwest-southeast dipole experiences the worst condition when the temperature anomaly is negative. Finally, the variables are simulated by circulation patterns through a multi-linear regression (MLR) model for 42 winters during 1979–2021. Specifically, the MLR model built by 56 SOM nodes well reproduces the day-to-day variabilities and trends of these variables.