Impact of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO Simulated in a Coupled GCM

Abstract

Abstract The impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its phase dependency is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). This paper investigates the response of ENSO to an idealized SVE forcing, producing a peak perturbation of global-mean surface shortwave radiation larger than −6.5 W m−2. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere induces tropical surface cooling around the volcanic forcing peak. Identical-twin forecast experiments of an ENSO-neutral year in response to an SVE forcing show an El Niño–like warming lagging one year behind the peak forcing. In addition to a reduced role of the mean subsurface water upwelling (known as the dynamical thermostat mechanism), the rapid land surface cooling around the Maritime Continent weakens the equatorial Walker circulation, contributing to the positive zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. Since the warm and cold phases of ENSO exhibit significant asymmetry in their transition and duration, the impact of a SVE forcing on El Niño and La Niña is also investigated. In the warm phase of ENSO, the prediction skill of the SVE-forced experiments rapidly drops approximately six months after the volcanic peak. Since the SVE significantly facilitates the duration of El Niño, the following transition from warm to cold ENSO is disrupted. The impact of SVE forcing on La Niña is, however, relatively weak. These results imply that the intensity of a dynamical thermostat-like response to a SVE could be dependent on the phase of ENSO.