Impact of seawater temperature on Korean aquaculture under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios

Abstract

We analyzed the short- (2030) and long-term (2100) impacts of elevated seawater temperatures on the 14 most important aquaculture species around the Korean Peninsula under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under these scenarios, the differences in sea surface temperatures that currently exist (i.e., where the South Sea is warmer than the East Sea and West Sea), decrease, and sea surface temperatures increase more rapidly in the East Sea and West Sea compared with the South Sea, with similar elevated summertime temperatures. We measured the durations of periods of optimal water temperature (ensuring optimal growth) and tolerable temperature (ensuring survival) for each target species as the criteria for assessing the impact of increased seawater temperatures on aquafarming. Our results suggest that the predicted northward shift in suitable aquafarming locations in Korea will not necessarily apply to all species. In addition, according to the results of non-optimal temperature frequency extraction based on averages in the major farming regions, the frequency of periods of non-optimal temperatures was higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. A comparison among the target aquaculture species revealed relatively low frequencies of periods with non-optimal temperatures for finfish and shellfish products and high frequencies for seaweed products.