Impact of seasonal climatic variability on rice yield in Bangladesh

Jaionto Karmokar Jaionto Karmokar,M Rakib Hassan M Rakib Hassan,M Aminul Islam M Aminul Islam,M.m Billah M.M Billah

doi:10.54386/jam.v22i2.157

Jaionto Karmokar Jaionto Karmokar, M Rakib Hassan M Rakib Hassan + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v22i2.157

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Abstract

 In Bangladesh, 75% of the total cultivable area is under rice cultivation producing 25 million tons of rice and plays a vital role in the country’s GDP. The climatic variability is playing an important role in affecting the rice production. In this study, the impact of climatic variability (average maximum temperature (aMaxTemp), average minimum temperature (aMinTemp) and average rainfall (aRainfall)) on rice yield was determined in two different regions (northern and southern) of Bangladesh.The variability of rice yield and climate factors was determined by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The data was analyzed over the 44-years period (1971 to 2014) in order to estimate the magnitude of these fluctuations statistically and graphically. We observed that the climate variables had significant effect on rice yield that varies among three rice crops (e.g., Aus, Aman, and Boro rice). We observed that, aMaxTemp has positive effects for Aus and Aman rice yield but negative effect on Boro rice yield. On the other hand, aMinTemp has negative effects on Aus and Aman rice yield but has positive effect on Boro rice yield. The aRainfall has a positive relationship with all rice yields in both the regions.

Highlights

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the most important cereal crop which is a staple food around 158 million people of Bangladesh and more than half of the world’s population (Ma et al, 2007; Fageria, 2007)
This table illustrates the fundamental climate characteristics during three rice growing seasons in Bangladesh. These descriptive statistics do not provide any evidence of variability in climate that impacted on rice production
In order to provide the quantitative justification for climate variability affected on rice yield during different growing seasons, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used

Summary

Introduction

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the most important cereal crop which is a staple food around 158 million people of Bangladesh and more than half of the world’s population (Ma et al, 2007; Fageria, 2007). The regression models over historical data to find a relationship between climate variables and crop yield (Isik and Devadoss, 2006; Mallick et al, 2007; Joshi et al, 2011; Sarker et al, 2012; Dari et al, 2017; Karmokar et al, 2019). They didn’t check the data variability like the area of rice cultivation, regional variations and rice yield during the year of 19712014. For our study we have considerd northern and southern regions of Bangladesh because these two regions cultivate Aus, Aman and Boro rice

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