Impact of regional climate change on apple yield in Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Climate change has become a major global as well as regional challenge because of its adverse effects on biodiversity and agriculture. Himachal Pradesh, a state in India, is situated in the western Indian Himalayan region, which predominantly features an agricultural economy, with apple being the major cash crop of the region. This paper presents the trend analysis of climatic parameters to delineate the effect of climate change on the apple yield in the region from 1991 to 2018. The temperature and rainfall data were obtained from the Indian metrological department, while snowfall data and ambient air quality data were collected from the database of NASA. The chill unit was calculated using the UTAH model. The climatic parameters were compared with apple yield to identify the impact of climate change on the crop. Therefore, apple yield reduction risk was calculated. The trend analysis indicated a temperature decrease during the monsoon months and a temperature increase during winters. The same analysis also indicated decreased snowfall by 0.375 kg/m2 and increased rainfall during the spring season by 23.2 mm, 19.6 mm, 10.4 mm (between mid-February and mid-April from 1985 to 2020). The chill units and apple production showed a positive correlation. In summary, our results indicated that climate change has reduced the apple yield by 11.48%.