Abstract

In the United Kingdom, agricultural grasslands cover 40% of the land area, make up 89% of the total agricultural area and are an important land use for ecosystem services and food security. Climate change predictions suggest that the United Kingdom will experience more frequent and severe periods of drought that may impact these grasslands. As part of the Drought Risk and You (DRY) project, a field experiment in which rain shelters reduced precipitation reaching the vegetation by approximately 50%, was set up in the South West of England. The experiment ran for 3 years, from October 2015 to October 2018. The study was carried out at two locations in the catchment of the Bristol River Frome. Both sites were species-rich semi-natural pastures that had received no inputs of fertilizer or herbicide for many years. Automatic weather stations recorded environmental conditions, especially rainfall, within the experimental area. The existing agricultural management regimes were approximated by cutting the vegetation in the plots, by hand, at the appropriate times of year. The effect of rainfall reduction on plant growth was assessed by biomass sampling. At both sites, the rainfall reduction treatment had only small effects on total above ground dry matter production (biomass). These effects were much smaller than the year-to-year variation in total biomass. Our results suggested that well-established permanent pastures in the South West of England were able to tolerate a 3-year period of reduced water supply. The observed year-to-year variation in biomass demonstrated how important the timing of dry weather is for biomass production, and this will be reflected in effects on yield and quality of hay.

Highlights

  • The Earth is experiencing a period of rapid climate change that is likely to impact human activities (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2020)

  • Drought and water scarcity can have wide-ranging impacts: on crop growth; wildlife; human health; and the economy (Rodda and Marsh, 2011; Staniak and Kocoń, 2015; Edwards et al, 2018)

  • When compared to the long-term average, rainfall recorded in the experimental plots ranged from 44% in the reduced rainfall (RR) treatment at Oldwood Pit (OWP) in 2016/2017 to 120% for the Control plots at University of the West of England (UWE) in 2015/2016 (Table 1)

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Summary

Introduction

The Earth is experiencing a period of rapid climate change that is likely to impact human activities (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2020). A particular concern is how changes in the distribution of rainfall amounts and events (Met Office, 2018a), periods of drought, will affect agriculture and crop growing conditions. Drought and water scarcity can have wide-ranging impacts: on crop growth (affecting both yield and quality); wildlife (for example, low river flows and associated decreases in water quality can increase mortality in aquatic life, dry conditions can cause newly planted vegetation to die and hasten the death of old or diseased plants); human health (for example, food shortages can lead to malnutrition, worry about food and water supplies can lead to mental health problems); and the economy (the cost of damage due to subsidence associated with the 1976 United Kingdom drought is estimated at £100 million) (Rodda and Marsh, 2011; Staniak and Kocoń, 2015; Edwards et al, 2018)

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