Abstract
Wheat is highly sensitive to climate change especially temperature changes experienced in the later phase of crop season. Hence, it is of immense importance to know how and to what extent climate change will affect wheat yields and to assess the adaptive strategies for mitigating possible negative consequences on wheat production. Wheat yield responses to three future climatic periods (2025, 2050 and 2075) were studied by driving DSSAT-Wheat (v4.5) model with daily weather from three CMIP-5 climate models’ (GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M) as the basic input at four sites (Ludhiana, Raipur, Akola and New Delhi) representing three major wheat growing zones of the country. Projected changes in growing season (November-March) day and night temperatures at four sites differed substantially both in direction and magnitude. Day temperatures are projected to rise conspicuously at Ludhiana, representing northwest parts of the country, and moderately over central parts of India (Akola and Raipur). Positive rainfall anomalies at Ludhiana (+76%) and negative anomalies at Raipur (-15%) are projected in future climates. With these anticipated changes, wheat is likely to experience warmer days (+1.1 °C) at Ludhiana and nights at Raipur (+2.8 °C) and more seasonal moisture availability at Ludhiana in future climates. Negative impacts of climatic change in these sites are found to be minimized by adapting one or a combination of management practices, which are site specific.
Highlights
In India, wheat is the second important food crop after rice, that grown over 30 million hectares (Mha) with a production of 94 million tons (MT) (DES, 2017)
Apart from these, climate change impacts have led to a decline in productivity on Indian wheat yields (Manju Zacharias et al, 2014; Sandhu et al, 2016)
We attempted to study the impact on wheat yield under future climate scenarios (2025, 2050 and 2075) at some selected sites using CERES-Wheat model and adaptation strategies
Summary
In India, wheat is the second important food crop after rice, that grown over 30 million hectares (Mha) with a production of 94 million tons (MT) (DES, 2017). Substantial yield gaps within wheat growing regions of the country, as well as between non-station and on-farm yields are reported. Apart from these, climate change impacts have led to a decline in productivity on Indian wheat yields (Manju Zacharias et al, 2014; Sandhu et al, 2016). To overcome the climatic barrier some available options include growing heat tolerant varieties, shifting sowing time, efficient nutrient management and irrigation (Nathaniel et al, 2012). In this backdrop, we attempted to study the impact on wheat yield under future climate scenarios (2025, 2050 and 2075) at some selected sites using CERES-Wheat model and adaptation strategies
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