Impact of political conflict on foreign direct investments in the mining sector: Evidence from the event study and spatial estimation

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the impact of conflict on greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in the mining sector covering the period of the 1st quarter of 2003 until the 3rd quarter of 2017, across 151 countries. Unlike previous works, this paper focuses on testing two impacts. First, we test for a dynamic impact to uncover the effect of conflict on FDI over the contemporary and subsequent annual quarters. Second, we test for a spatial spillover impact. To achieve these goals, we apply both a panel spatial approach and an event study analysis, using a unique proprietary database FDIMarkets. The main findings are as follows. First, the presence of a dynamic impact depends on the intensity of the conflict for the particular country group, with higher levels of intensity being associated with a higher probability of the presence of a dynamic effect. Second, we find a significant negative spillover impact of greenfield mining FDI of neighbouring countries on the greenfield mining FDI of the FDI-receiving economy. We do not find, however, that conflict in neighbouring countries has a spatial spillover impact on greenfield mining FDI of the FDI-receiving economy.