Abstract
Variations in weather conditions have a significant impact on thermokarst lakes, such as the sub-lake permafrost thawing caused by global warming. Based on the analysis of Landsat sensor images by ENVI TM 5.3 software, the present study quantitatively determined the area of the thermokarst lakes and the area of the single selected thermokarst lake in the Beilu River Basin from 2000 to 2016. In an effort to explore the reason for changes in the area of thermokarst lakes, this work used Pearson correlation to analyze the relationship between the area of thermokarst lakes and precipitation, wind speed, average temperature, and relative humidity as obtained from the weather station Wudaoliang. Furthermore, this study used multiple linear regression to comprehensively study the correlation between the meteorological factors and changes in the thermokarst lake area. In this case, the total lake-area changes and the single-area changes exhibited unique patterns. The results showed that the total lake area and the single selected lake area increased year by year. Furthermore, the effects of the four meteorological factors defined above on the total area of typical thermokarst lakes are different from the effects of these factors on the single selected thermokarst lake. While the total area of specific thermokarst lakes exhibited a time lag in their response to the four factors, the surface area of the selected thermokarst lake responded to these factors on time. The dominant meteorological factor contributing to total lake area variations of typical thermokarst lakes is the increasing annual average temperature. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the total area and the annual average temperature is 0.717, suggesting a statistically significant correlation between the two factors. For the selected thermokarst lake, the surface area is related to annual average temperature and wind speed. As a result, wind speed and average temperature could infer the variation law on the thermokarst lake due to the linear fitting equation between area and significant meteorological factors.
Highlights
When ice-rich permafrost thaws and massive ice begins to melt, it leads to ground subsidence, followed by the formation of thermokarst lakes
The results showed that only air temperature and rainfall had significant positive correlations with the total area of thermokarst lakes in the Beilu River
Around 2013, climatic factors and area changes showed opposite trends, but this was due to the extreme climate impacts that led to ab10 ofof normal changes in the lake areas [36]. These findings suggest that the main driver change in the total area of thermokarst lakes is the average annual temperature, which may be the key factor controlling the growth of thermokarst lakes annually
Summary
Niu’s group measured the ages of formation, enlargement rates, water depth, size, and mean annual temperature of 11 thermokarst lakes between 2007 and 2009 They mainly focused on the characteristics of thermokarst lakes and their influence on permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet. The changes of thermokarst lakes in the Beilu River Basin are related to climate and human activities Their relationship will help us predict the natural disasters caused by typical thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In light of these considerations, the work presented has selected a representative region in the Beilu River Basin to investigate the thermokarst lake area changes from 2000 to 2016 by analyzing Landsat sensor images by ENVI 5.3 software Through linear fitting equation and correlation coefficient, the future trend of the thermokarst lake can be inferred
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