Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has put the world in threat for a long time. It was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. This disease is mainly caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). So far, no vaccine or medicine has been developed for the proper treatment of this disease, so people are afraid of getting infected. The pandemic has placed many nations at the door of socioeconomic emergencies. Therefore, it is very important to predict the development trend of this epidemic, and we know mathematical modelling is a basic tool to research the dynamic behaviour of disease and predict the spreading trend of the disease. In this study, we have formulated a mathematical model for the COVID-19 outbreak by introducing a quarantine class with media-induced fear in the disease transmission rate to analyze the dynamic behaviour of this epidemic. We have calculated the basic reproduction number R0, and we observed that when R0 < 1, disease-free equilibrium is globally stable whereas if R0> 1, then the system is permanent and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium point. Global stability of the endemic equilibrium point is developed by using Li and Muldowney’s high-dimensional Bendixson criterion. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed using MATLAB to verify our analytical results.
Highlights
Over the past two decades, two known coronavirus outbreaks of SARS [1] and MERS [2] have been detected in humans
COVID-19 is an abbreviated form of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which has not been identified previously in humans. is disease is mainly transmitted through direct human-to-human contact, but there are pieces of evidence and work which claim that it can be transmitted indirectly through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person [3,4,5]
We have presented a modified classic SEIR model to study the effects of fear induced by media on the disease transmission rate of the epidemic COVID-19
Summary
Over the past two decades, two known coronavirus outbreaks of SARS [1] and MERS [2] have been detected in humans. People are concerned about their health, but the infection rate and death rate of the disease are increasing day by day and they are terrified to see this type of news through the media, so a wave of fear has been developed in the society. Mohsen et al [21] studied the global stability of a COVID-19 model with quarantine strategy and media coverage effects. Chang et al [32] proposed an SIHRS model which incorporated awareness of media coverage, which plays an important role in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. Inspired by above all these works, we have formulated a modified SEIR model to discuss the impact of fear on the disease transmission rate through media alertness.
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