Abstract
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of long-term climate change trends in the distribution of the endemic population of Moluccella bucharica (B. Fedtsch.) Ryding in southern Uzbekistan. Based on the analysis of daily data of 2 meteorological sources (NASA POWER and Boysun (M-II), reliable long-term trends in changes in the amounts of atmospheric precipitation and air temperatures (average, average minimum, absolute minimum, average maximum and absolute maximum) for different periods (1982–2020) of the year (year, half-year, season) have been established, which are actively manifested in the dynamics of the M. bucharica population. The results of this study serve to substantiate and explain that the conditions that lead to the M. bucharica crisis - changes in the reproductive phase and damage to seeds by insects - are the result of the effects of climate change. We found that the amplitude of the change of sediments is 59.8%, the amplitude of the change of the average temperature of the air is 19.3–53.76%, the amplitude of the change of the average maximum temperature of the air is 9.75–47.54%, the average minimum temperature of the air is 29–59%. These coefficients of change indicate that the climate of the region where the species grows has changed and is changing towards a sharp aridization.
Highlights
Biodiversity is generally accepted to be decreasing at an unprecedented rate (1–4)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the average global temperature, which has increased by 0.85°C during the 20th century, will continue to increase by at least 0.3–1.7 °C and at most by 2.6–4.8°C by 2100 (9)
For each of the obtained long-term data series, graphs of their long-term dynamics were built, and the correlation coefficients were calculated between the actual data and their linear trends
Summary
Biodiversity is generally accepted to be decreasing at an unprecedented rate (1–4). Among the many reasons for this, climate change is often regarded as one of the most significant drivers as it influences the growth and reproduction of species, thereby determining the natural distribution of species (4–8). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the average global temperature, which has increased by 0.85°C during the 20th century, will continue to increase by at least 0.3–1.7 °C and at most by 2.6–4.8°C by 2100 (9). This increase in temperature is often considered to negatively affect ecosystems through habitat fragmentation, increases in disease outbreak frequencies, and increases in the extinction rate of endangered species (10, 11), some studies have found positive impacts on some species (12). To clarify the specific effects of climate change on species and mitigate the possible negative effects of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity, it is important to identify the distribution of species under current climatic conditions and expected future climate change (13, 14)
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