Abstract
A computer simulation model was developed to examine the long term impact of a hypothetical gypsy moth infestation on forest dynamics in the North Carolina Piedmont. The forest growth submodel is based on Johnson's (1977) model of forest succession on the Piedmont and considers both managed and unmanaged forests. This submodel consists of 36 state variables: 12 forests types (e.g., loblolly pine-oak, water oak-gum, virginia pine, etc.) each with three size classes (seedling-saplings, pole-timber, and saw-timber). The gypsy moth submodel simulates population dynamics on a 1-ha basis and includes models of dispersal, development, consumption, reproduction, and mortality. Results from the simulations indicate forest composition is an important determinant of the number, magnitude, and duration of gypsy moth outbreaks. The usefulness and potential modifications of the model for use as a tool in examining this inevitable ecological perturbation on the North Carolina Piedmont are discussed.
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