Abstract
Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.
Highlights
Forests are responsible for 2.4604 Pg of carbon (C) storage, an amount equivalent to,30% of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions [1]
Our research objective was to understand the interactive effects of gypsy moth and climate change under a fire regime on the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens (NJPB) with respect to landscape C pools and fluxes, as well as forest species composition and distribution
Our results suggest that long-term patterns in total C will be more affected by climate change than by fire or gypsy moth defoliation over the century
Summary
Forests are responsible for 2.4604 Pg of carbon (C) storage, an amount equivalent to ,30% of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions [1]. Forests in the United States are still recovering from postsettlement (1700-1935) carbon losses, and this recovery is expected to continue, though disturbance and future climate will likely be huge determinants [3]. Disturbance regimes within forests can have significant impacts on carbon storage and cycling. Gypsy moth outbreaks are seasonal events which can persist for several years across a region [6]. Their direct effects, such as seasonal loss of leaf area or increased moisture stress, impact ecosystem function and structure, in forests of long-lived trees [7,8,9]
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