Impact of global warming on labor productivity in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, China

Abstract

In recent years, the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) has experienced frequent heat events, significantly impacting labor productivity. The CCEC is an important economic growth pole in western China. Therefore, an in-depth study of the impact of heat stress on labor productivity holds great significance for climate change adaptation and enhancing economic efficiency. Based on the relationship between the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and labor productivity of different industries, the labor productivity loss caused by heat in the CCEC was estimated using the observation data of the meteorological station and the projection results of the BCC-CSM2-MR model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that the impact of heat on the labor productivity of different industries in the CCEC mainly occurs from June to August, with the largest impact on agriculture, followed by industry, and the smallest impact on service sectors. Losses from heat stress to labor productivity in agriculture, industry, and services showed a significant increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 but a decreasing trend in comprehensive labor productivity loss. From 2020–2100, labor productivity losses in different industries due to heat stress show an increasing and then decreasing trend in the low emissions scenario, productivity losses in the medium emissions scenario are characterized by an increasing and then sustained change, and labor productivity losses in the high emissions scenario show a sustained increasing trend from 2020. By the end of the 21st century, the increase in labor productivity losses across different industries under the high emission scenario is approximately 15%–23%, and the large value center shifts slightly to the west. In most areas, the losses of agricultural, industrial, service, and comprehensive labor productivity exceed 45%, 32%, 20%, and 24%, respectively.