Mega project impact on urban growth and ecosystem service

Abstract

In an effort to forecast and estimate the value of ecosystem services (ESVs) and land use and land cover changes (LULC), recent global events and research have centered on the evaluation of LULC. This study evaluates the effectiveness of an integrated approach using multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis (MLP-MCA) and remote sensing data for monitoring land use and land cover (LULC) changes. The study area comprises the three Bangladeshi upazilas that the Padma Bridge connects: Shariatpur, Louhajang, and Janjira. The Ecosystem Services Valuation Database (ESVD) was used to evaluate the impacts of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs). The LULC of the study area was estimated for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, and the forecast period for urban development was 2030 and 2040. Additionally, the monetary value of ecosystem services was evaluated across the time. As per the LULC change analysis, there is a projected 4.35% growth in the built-up area from 2000 to 2020. After the bridge is constructed, the built-up area is projected to increase by 7% in 2030 and 14% in 2040, according to the forecast. The exponential expansion of developed land has a paradoxical effect on the value of ecosystem services. From 2020 to 2040, it is expected that the ESVs for provision, regulation, culture, and support will experience a reduction of approximately 213.24 million USD/ha. Even if the establishment of a bridge results in economic stability and investment attraction for the nation, unforeseen ecosystem service losses cannot contribute to long-term, sustainable development. This study, by establishing a correlation between urban area expansion and the deterioration of ecosystem services, can serve as a standard and basis for guiding management decisions.