Abstract
Abstract. This study investigated the influence of five El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types on rainy-season precipitation in China: central Pacific warming (CPW), eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), eastern Pacific warming (EPW), conventional ENSO and ENSO Modoki. The multi-scale moving t test was applied to determine the onset and withdrawal of rainy season. Results showed that the precipitation anomaly can reach up to 30 % above average precipitation during decaying CPW and EPW phases. Developing EPW could cause decreasing precipitation over large areas in China with 10–30 % lower than average precipitation in most areas. Conventional El Niño in the developing phase had the largest influence on ENSO-related precipitation among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki regimes. Decaying ENSO also showed a larger effect on precipitation anomalies, compared to decaying ENSO Modoki. The difference between rainy-season precipitation under various ENSO regimes may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. Stronger monsoon and anti-cyclone are associated with enhanced rainy-season precipitation. The results suggest a certain predictability of rainy-season precipitation related to ENSO regimes.
Highlights
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important factors affecting precipitation, which has been achieved urgent attention worldwide (Li et al, 2016; Wang et al, 2006; Preethi et al, 2015; Yuan et al, 2016a, b; Zaroug et al, 2014; Brigode et al, 2013)
This study investigated the distribution of Precipitation anomaly during rainy season (PARS) under various ENSO types in developing and decaying phases and their underlying causes
The developing phase of eastern Pacific warming (EPW) presents overall negative rainy-season precipitation anomalies in China with more than 30 % below average precipitation identified in many parts of the country, which is a result of weak westerly winds
Summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important factors affecting precipitation, which has been achieved urgent attention worldwide (Li et al, 2016; Wang et al, 2006; Preethi et al, 2015; Yuan et al, 2016a, b; Zaroug et al, 2014; Brigode et al, 2013). Rainy season characteristics (e.g., onset, withdrawal and precipitation of rainy season), are less considered, which are of immense significance to rain-fed agriculture in many countries like China. Reliable prediction of onset and withdrawal of rainy season will assist on-time preparation of farmlands and is significant to ecosystems (Omotosho et al, 2000; Marteau et al, 2011). Rainy season is a period when it is easier for flooding, and rainy-season precipitation could provide certain predictability of flood occurrence. Lu (2005) pointed out that rainfall in the rainy season in northern China is related to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and negative (positive) SSTA could trigger heavier (lighter) rainy-season pre- It is significant to investigate rainyseason precipitation under ENSO regimes. Cai (2003) observed similar inter-decadal oscillation and abrupt variations between rainfall of rainy season in Fujian and Niño 3 SST. Lu (2005) pointed out that rainfall in the rainy season in northern China is related to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and negative (positive) SSTA could trigger heavier (lighter) rainy-season pre-
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