Impact of emerging technologies on the electricity load profile of residential areas

Abstract

Technological progress and the ambition to de-carbonise the energy sector are changing the way electricity is generated and used. In the residential sector, more efficient electric devices, electrification of mobility and heating systems, as well as on-site PV and battery systems are the main technologies driving this change. These changes will impact the characteristics of the electric demand. A comprehensive understanding of these changes is essential to efficiently design the energy system of tomorrow.The target of this research is to explore the possible changes of the electric load profiles with the current technological development, both at an individual household level and at an aggregate level. An inner-city area of 1550 houses is simulated with a time resolution of 1 minute using a stochastic bottom-up approach. Three scenarios considering refurbishment of buildings, efficiency increase in devices and emerging technologies are simulated. Differences in the load profiles are then analysed.Results show that future load profiles will change significantly. A strong seasonality will appear due to the increased penetration of PV, μ-CHP and heat pumps. Intra-day fluctuations will also increase, mainly due to the introduction of electric vehicles and PV. Annual peak load will rise significantly mainly due to the electric back-up heaters of air-source heat pumps. Increased electrification increases annual electricity demand, but results show that this will be partly compensated by better insulated buildings, more energy efficient household devices, and on-site production from PV-Battery systems and μ-CHP.