Future residential load profiles: Scenario-based analysis of high penetration of heavy loads and distributed generation

Abstract

• Analyze the uncertainties in future residential load profiles. • Present existing and future compositions of loads and DGs. • Use scenario-based approach to investigate future load profiles. • Model and simulate combinations of heat pumps, electric vehicles, PVs, and microCHPs. • Provides detailed analyses of simulation results and make recommendations. Electric load profiles are useful for accurate load forecasting, network planning and optimal generation capacity. They represent electricity demand patterns and are to a large extent predictable. However, new and heavier loads (heat pumps and electric vehicles), distributed generation, and home energy management technologies will change future energy consumption pattern of residential customers. This article analyses future residential load profiles via modelling and simulation of residential loads and distributed generations. The household base loads are represented by synthetic load profiles. Mathematical models are implemented for heat pumps, micro combined heat and power units, electric vehicles and photovoltaic systems. Scenario-based simulations are performed with different combination and penetration levels of load and generation technologies for different seasons. The results of the analyses show that with varying penetration levels of distributed generation and heavy loads, future residential load profiles will be more dynamic and dependent on multiple factors deviating from the classical demand pattern.