Impact of differentiated service delivery models on 12-month retention in HIV treatment in Mozambique: an interrupted time-series analysis

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HIV treatment has been available in Mozambique since 2004, but coverage of, and retention in, antiretroviral therapy (ART) remain suboptimal. Therefore, to increase health system efficiency and reduce HIV-associated mortality, in November, 2018, the Ministry of Health launched national guidelines on implementing eight differentiated service delivery models (DSDMs) for HIV treatment. We assessed the effect of this implementation on retention in ART 12 months after initiation, and explored the associated effects of COVID-19. In this uncontrolled interrupted time-series analysis, data were extracted from the Mozambique ART database, which contains data on individuals in ART care from 1455 health facilities providing ART in Mozambique. We included individual-level data from facilities that were providing ART at the beginning of the study period (Jan 1, 2016) and at the start of DSDM implementation (Dec 1, 2018). We compared the proportion of individuals retained in ART 12 months after initiation between the periods before (Jan 1, 2017, to Nov 30, 2018) and after (Dec 1, 2019, to June 30, 2021) implementation of the DSDMs, overall and stratified by sex and age. We applied a generalised estimating equation model with a working independence correlation and cluster-robust standard errors to account for clustering at the facility level. In a secondary analysis, we assessed the effect of COVID-19 response measures during the post-intervention period on ART retention. The study included 613 facilities and 1 131 118 individuals who started ART during the inclusion period up to June 30, 2020, of whom 79 178 (7·0%) were children (age ≤14 years), 226 224 (20·0%) were adolescents and young adults (age 15-24 years), and 825 716 (73·0%) were adults (age ≥25 years). 731 623 (64·7%) were female and 399 495 (35·3%) were male. Introduction of the DSDMs was associated with an estimated increase of 24·5 percentage points (95% CI 21·1 to 28·0) in 12-month ART retention by the end of the study period, compared with the counterfactual scenario without DSDM implementation. By age, the smallest effect was estimated in children (6·1 percentage points, 1·3 to 10·9) and the largest effect in adolescents and young adults (28·8 percentage points, 24·2 to 33·4); by sex, a larger effect was estimated in males (29·7 percentage points, 25·6 to 33·7). Our analysis showed that COVID-19 had an overall negative effect on 12-month retention in ART compared with a counterfactual scenario based on the post-intervention period without COVID-19 (-10·0 percentage points, -18·2 to -1·8). The implementation of eight DSDMs for HIV treatment had a positive impact on 12-month retention in ART. COVID-19 negatively influenced this outcome. None. For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.