Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analysis of the Implementation of Differentiated Service Delivery Models for HIV Treatment in Mozambique: a Modelling Study.

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In 2018, the Mozambique Ministry of Health launched guidelines for implementing differentiated service delivery models (DSDMs) to optimize HIV service delivery, improve retention in care, and ultimately reduce HIV-associated mortality. The models were fast-track, 3-month antiretrovirals dispensing, community antiretroviral therapy groups, adherence clubs, family approach and three one-stop shop models: adolescent-friendly health services, maternal and child health, and tuberculosis. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis to compare these models to conventional services. We constructed a decision tree model based on the percentage of enrolment in each model and the probability of the outcome (12-month retention in treatment) for each year of the study period-three for the cost-effectiveness analysis (2019-2021) and three for the budget impact analysis (2022-2024). Costs for these analyses were primarily estimated per client-year from the health system perspective. A secondary cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal perspective. Budget impact analysis costs included antiretrovirals, laboratory tests and service provision interactions. Cost-effectiveness analysis additionally included start-up, training and clients' opportunity costs. Effectiveness was estimated using an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis comparing the outcome before and after the implementation of the differentiated models. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify drivers of uncertainty. After implementation of the DSDMs, there was a mean increase of 14.9 percentage points (95% CI: 12.2, 17.8) in 12-month retention, from 47.6% (95% CI, 44.9-50.2) to 62.5% (95% CI, 60.9-64.1). The mean cost difference comparing DSDMs and conventional care was US$ -6 million (173,391,277 vs. 179,461,668) and -32.5 million (394,705,618 vs. 433,232,289) from the health system and the societal perspective, respectively. Therefore, DSDMs dominated conventional care. Results were most sensitive to conventional care interaction costs in the one-way sensitivity analysis. For a population of 1.5 million, the base-case 3-year financial costs associated with the DSDMs was US$550 million, compared with US$564 million for conventional care. DSDMs were less expensive and more effective in retaining clients 12 months after antiretroviral therapy initiation and were estimated to save approximately US$14 million for the health system from 2022 to 2024.