Impact of Demographic Trends on Retail Banking

Abstract

The number of trends directly impacting the development of banking services, the business model of financial intermediaries and the future of the sector is both large and very diverse, and thus represent a great interest for research from the point of view of modern economic science. The goal of this paper is to identify patterns in the development of banking products in the modern economy, which is characterized by the instability of the regulatory environment, a significant number of technological innovations in related areas, conflicting demographic trends, and an accelerated change in customer preferences. Data makes it possible to form a rather wide database of balanced panel data covering most regions of Russia over a long period (from 2010 to 2020). The results obtained indicate a fairly high quality of the regression: characteristics such as income and credit history strongly affect the volume of loans in a region (these results were expected as mentioned factors in most cases indicate a normal inertial process of changing the attitude of credit institutions and their customers to a banking product, in this case – retail lending). On the other hand, the factors characterizing the non-financial socio-demographic characteristics of the population of the regions, such as quality of health care, financial literacy, also turned out to be significant. The obtained quantitative estimates might be used for credit institutions for management of risks and product development in various territories and planning expansion.