Impact of demand growth on the capacity of long-duration energy storage under deep decarbonization

Abstract

Abstract The weather-dependent uncertainty of wind and solar power generation presents a challenge to the balancing of power generation and demand in highly renewable electricity systems. Battery energy storage can provide flexibility to firm up the variability of renewables and to respond to the increased load demand under decarbonization scenarios. This paper explores how the battery energy storage capacity requirement for compressed-air energy storage (CAES) will grow as the load demand increases. Here we used an idealized lowest-cost optimization model to study the response of highly renewable electricity systems to the increasing load demand of California under deep decarbonization. Results show that providing bulk CAES to the zero-emission power system offers substantial benefits, but it cannot fully compensate for the 100% variability of highly renewable power systems. The capacity requirement of CAES increases by ≤33.3% with a 1.5 times increase in the load demand and by ≤50% with a two-times increase in the load demand. In this analysis, a zero-emission electricity system operating at current costs becomes more cost-effective when there is firm power generation. The least competitive nuclear option plays this role and reduces system costs by 16.4%, curtails the annual main node by 36.8%, and decreases the CAES capacity requirements by ≤80.7% in the case of a double-load demand. While CAES has potential in addressing renewable variability, its widespread deployment is constrained by geographical, societal, and economic factors. Therefore, if California is aiming for an energy system that is reliant on wind and solar power, then an additional dispatchable power source other than CAES or similar load flexibility is necessary. To fully harness the benefits of bulk CAES, the development and implementation of cost-effective approaches are crucial in significantly reducing system costs.