Abstract
Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in trade is a growing concern for the international community. Multiple studies have highlighted drawbacks in the territorial and production-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions because it neglects emissions from the consumption of goods in trade. This creates weak carbon leakage and complicates international agreements on emissions regulations. Therefore, we estimated consumption-based emissions using input-output analysis and life cycle assessment to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions hidden in meat and dairy products in Hong Kong, a city predominately reliant on imports. We found that emissions solely from meat and dairy consumption were higher than the city’s total greenhouse gas emissions using conventional production-based calculation. This implies that government reports underestimate more than half of the emissions, as 62% of emissions are embodied in international trade. The discrepancy emphasizes the need of transitioning climate targets and policy to consumption-based accounting. Furthermore, we have shown that dietary change from a meat-heavy diet to a diet in accordance with governmental nutrition guidelines could achieve a 67% reduction in livestock-related emissions, allowing Hong Kong to achieve the Paris Agreement targets for 2030. Consequently, we concluded that consumption-based accounting for greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to target the areas where emissions reduction is realistically achievable, especially for import-reliant cities like Hong Kong.
Highlights
The standardized greenhouses gas (GHG) calculation framework provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) captures the emissions occurring within country’s geographical boarder and usually adopts a producer-oriented approach (e.g. IPCC 2006, Caro et al 2015, Druckman et al 2008, Bastianoni et al 2014)
Meat- and dairy-based consumption emissions in Hong Kong were calculated using a combination of multiple data sets and analyses; (1) meat and dairy consumption was estimated from the Hong Kong government’s trade data (Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department 2017), (2) embodied GHG emissions were calculated using detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) analysis from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), (3) input-output analysis was used to trace the emissions in international trade and (4) projected GHG emissions for 2016–2030 were obtained from the Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD)
To compare the relatively high meat consumption and the associated emissions in Hong Kong, we present an input-output analysis and LCA for the United Kingdom (UK), which we consider as a typical western diet
Summary
The standardized greenhouses gas (GHG) calculation framework provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) captures the emissions occurring within country’s geographical boarder and usually adopts a producer-oriented approach (e.g. IPCC 2006, Caro et al 2015, Druckman et al 2008, Bastianoni et al 2014). The production, or territorialbased accounting, ignores emissions embodied in international trade (e.g. Peters 2008, Lenzen et al 2004). In a globalized and highly-connected economic system, country’s emissions are intimately linked with each other because international trade divides production and consumption in different geographical regions (Schmitz et al 2012, Su and Ang 2010, Wiebe et al 2012, Lenzen et al 2004). There is an increasing trend of emissions transfer via international trade and emissions are shifted from one country to another (Peters et al 2011). Neglecting international trade in the global GHG estimation lead to an incomplete understanding of emissions nationally and undermine the emissions reduction targets (e.g. Davis and Caldeira 2010, Peters et al 2012, Weinzettel et al 2013, Peters and Hertwich 2008, Scott and Barrett 2015, Athanassiadis et al 2016)
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