Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.
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