Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of COVID-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline market by employing daily gasoline consumption data covering 2014-2020 periods. The forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. The best fit model forecasts fail miserably after the COVID-19 outbreak. Then, the volatility dynamics of the daily gasoline consumption is examined by employing ARCH family models. As a result, the forecast performance improves after taking the conditional volatility into consideration. Finally, recommendations are presented to minimize economic impact on Turkey in case of a pandemic.
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