Abstract
Since the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 has severely affected port production and operation. There is little research on the systematic impact assessment. This study took Shanghai Port as an example and evaluated the impact under different scenarios through establishing a System Dynamics model. It is found that the epidemic mainly has a greater impact on passenger transport, but less on cargo transport. The ports with the function of transportation in highway, railway, and waterway were the key nodes in the international logistics network. More attention should be paid to the impact assessment of COVID-19 on ports’ production and operation. It is necessary to strengthen the port’s collection and distribution capabilities, improve port production efficiency, and further strengthen port modernization. This research method proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the impact assessment of similar events, and the empirical results can provide a reference for handling the epidemic shock for the port and shipping departments.
Highlights
Introduction andBackground e new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) that outbroke in Wuhan in December 2019 has severely affected people’s lives
By analyzing the relative error of GDP and port throughput, it is found that the average relative error of GDP is 1.83%, and the average relative error of port throughput is 1.33%, both of which are less than 5%. erefore, it can be considered that the parameter setting of the model is reasonable and the simulation is accurate
We evaluate the impact of COVID-19 through influence coefficients
Summary
Scholars have used the System Dynamics model to study the operation process of the port. Geng et al [16] took Qingdao Port as an example, established the System Dynamics model, and studied the emissions of ships in the port. Qiao et al [17] took Lianyungang as an example and established a port-city coupling System Dynamics model, which takes into account the interactions among various elements in the economic-energy-environment complex system. Mamatok et al [19] applied System Dynamics models to analyze the carbon emissions of port container transportation. Taking into account the complexity of the port and its supply system, we constructed a System Dynamics model to distinguish different scenarios and made a simulation analysis of the research path and the impact of COVID-19 on the port system. Taking into account the complexity of the port and its supply system, we constructed a System Dynamics model to distinguish different scenarios and made a simulation analysis of the research path and the impact of COVID-19 on the port system. e results can provide references for various departments to take targeted countermeasures
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