Impact of Convective Parameterization Schemes on the Quality of Rainfall Forecast over Tanzania Using WRF-Model

Alfred L Kondowe

doi:10.4236/ns.2014.610069

Abstract

To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes and rainfall forecast in Tanzania, the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for Tanzania; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different convective parameterization schemes (CP’s) and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of rainfall forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate rainfall amount during strong downpour. The impact on the quality of rainfall forecast of six CP’s was investigated. Two rainy seasons, short season “Vuli” from October to December (OND) and long season “Masika” from March to May (MAM) were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that for rainfall prediction in Dar es Salaam and (the entire coast of the Indian Ocean), GD scheme performed better during OND and BMJ scheme during MAM. Results also showed that NC scheme should not be used, which is in agreement to the fact that in tropics rainfall is from convective activities. WRF model to some extent performs better in the cases of extreme rainfall.

Highlights

The economy of the United Republic of Tanzania like many other African countries depends much on agricultural sector, which is highly vulnerable to amounts and rainfall distribution
More than 80 percent of the population of the government of the United Republic of Tanzania lives in rural areas and their livelihood depend on agriculture which in turn depends on the start, duration and longevity of the rainy season [1]
We examined the impacts of six convective parameterization schemes (Table 1) on the quality of rainfall forecast in Tanzania

Summary

Introduction

The economy of the United Republic of Tanzania like many other African countries depends much on agricultural sector, which is highly vulnerable to amounts and rainfall distribution. How to cite this paper: Kondowe, A.L. (2014) Impact of Convective Parameterization Schemes on the Quality of Rainfall Forecast over Tanzania Using WRF-Model. Kondowe has significant impact on the volume of crops production and corresponding level of income and poverty. The income from the agricultural sector is more than half of Gross Domestic Production (GDP). More than 80 percent of the population of the government of the United Republic of Tanzania lives in rural areas and their livelihood depend on agriculture which in turn depends on the start, duration and longevity of the rainy season [1]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion