NUMERICAL MODELING OF POLAR LOWS OVER THE BARENTS SEA: IMPACT OF WRF PARAMETRIZATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORECAST.

Abstract

Polar lows are generally characterized by severe weather in the form of strong winds, showers and occasionally heavy snow, which have sometimes resulted in the loss of life, especially at sea. Numerical simulations with mesoscale atmospheric models is a good alternative to investigate polar low phenomenon, because they produce temporally and spatially regular-spaced fields of atmospheric variables with high resolution. To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for the Barents Sea region; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization (PBLs) schemes and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate evolution of polar lows. The impact on the quality of forecast was investigated. The results of the study, obtained by numerical modeling of polar mesoscale low over the Barents Sea. One polar low, near Spitsbergen, from 24 of March to 26 of March 2014 were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that each of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization scheme isn't successful for simulation of polar low.