Impact of climate factors on future distributions of Paeonia ostii across China estimated by MaxEnt

Abstract

Paeonia ostii (Paeoniaceae), a famous traditional flowering plant, is an edible perennial shrub having medicinal uses. In recent decades, growing market demands and unprecedented damage to forests has caused severe degeneration of its natural habitat. As a result, land managers involved in conserving and restoring its habitat need to identify the environmental factors that shape its distribution. The present study predicted the potential distribution of this species and evaluated habitat suitable for it. The main environmental factors affecting this species were determined using 145 occurrence records, 30 environmental variables, MaxEnt modeling, and an analysis using ArcGIS 10.2 software. The results showed that the moderately and highly suitable habitat for P. ostii encompasses ca. 8.23 × 105 km2; the areas with a high suitability index (>0.6) for the distribution of this species were in southern Anhui, Henan (Kaifeng, Luoyang, Pingdingshan, Xuchang, and Zhengzhou), Hubei (Huanggang and Huangshi), and Shanxi (Yan'an) provinces. Annual mean temperature, mean UV-B of the lightest month, vapor pressure, and annual precipitation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. ostii. The results of this study can allow land managers to avoid wasted human effort and materials as well as the exhaustion of wild P. ostii resources that could result from the blind introduction of this species into unsuitable habitat while improving both the quality and yield of P. ostii.