Abstract
Abstract Wind energy is one of the most important ways to implement green energy in Lithuania. The development of wind energy infrastructure by state funding is directly related to wind energy resources. Changes in wind energy resources induced by ongoing climate change have not been well analyzed either in Lithuania or in Europe or worldwide. This article analyses data taken from long-term wind observations and IPCC projections. It was found that during the last decades (1980–2019), the wind speed in Lithuania decreased up to 0.69 m/s in the coastal region and up to 0.24 m/s in the central part of Lithuania. The decrease in wind speed caused a decrease in generated energy by 15.6 % and 17.8 % in the coastal and the central parts of Lithuania. Analysis of wind speed projections for the period 2010–2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, has shown that the average annual wind speed would decrease by 7.3 % in Lithuanian’s coastal region and 8.8 % the central region by the end of the century. The change in wind speed will cause up to a 25 % reduction in wind potential. As the average lifetime of wind turbines is about 25 years, the amount of electricity generated during this period will be up to 20 % lower than planned at the design stage.
Highlights
The European Union (EU) has renewable energy goals described in the directive 2018/2001 that promote the use of energy from renewable sources
For 23 different hydrometeorological stations (HMS), correlation coefficient, mean, median, variance and standard deviation were calculated for all sets of daily data
Results have shown that over the last decades (1980–2019), wind speed decreased by 17 % in coastal and by 9 % in central regions of Lithuania
Summary
The European Union (EU) has renewable energy goals described in the directive 2018/2001 that promote the use of energy from renewable sources. The share of renewable energy in energy consumption increased from 8.5 % (2004) up to 17.5 % (2017) and is expected to reach 20 % by 2020 [2]. The directive states that each country of the EU should reach national targets of renewable energy. For Lithuania, the target is to increase the share of renewable energy sources to at least 23 % of the country's final gross energy consumption by 2020. The share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES) from 4.9 % in the country's total electricity consumption in 2008 to 21 % in 2020 [3], [4]. Lithuanian Wind Power Association (LWAP) states that 1.1 TWh of electricity was produced, over 10 % of Lithuanian's overall electricity demand. This amount of electricity was generated by 23 onshore wind parks of 539 MW capacity (including smaller wind power plants) [6]
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