Impact of climate change on water resources in Jordan: a case study of Azraq basin

Abstract

Azraq basin is one of the most important groundwater basins in Jordan. Trend analysis using RClimDex for six rainfall stations and two metrological stations was performed to detect and predict climate change impacts on the Azraq basin until the year 2030. Three absolute homogeneity tests were used to detect any variation in the data time series. The results showed that monthly max value of daily mean temp, tropical night, monthly maximum value of daily maximum temp, monthly maximum value of daily minimum temp and cool days were found to be statistically significant climate change indices. The trend of the max temperature during July is significant, while insignificant trend for the minimum temperature in the same month was noticed. The frequency of days in which the maximum temperature exceeded 38 °C increased and there was increase in the minimum temperature count of values that are exceeding 20 °C in the last 46 years. Regarding the rainfall, there is no change in total annual precipitation over the study area during the studied period. The results of simulating climate change impact into the evaporation showed expected increase by 4.74 and 5.32% for Al Butum and El Janab wadis, respectively, during the period of 2013–2030. Streamflow analysis showed slight decrease by 1.51 and 1.02% for both wadis, respectively.