Impact of climate change on the dynamics of soybean (Glycine max) (L.) Merr. production areas in the second agricultural development pole of the Sudanian region of Benin (West Africa)

Abstract

AbstractThe impact of climate change on the world food supply is the drastic decrease of cereal production in the Sudano‐Sahelian region of Africa. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of climate variability on the dynamics of current and future soybean (Glycine max) production areas in the second agricultural development pole of Benin in the Sudanian region. The maximum entropy approach (Maxent) was adopted. To this end, 10,135 points of soybean (G. max) occurrence in the field and at the GBIF site were associated with environmental variables of three climatic scenarios, namely: climatic conditions, the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5), and the most pessimistic but probable scenario (RCP 8.5) for the purposes of the analysis. The results show that climate variability will lead to profound changes in soybean agro‐ecological areas by 2050. These changes will be marked by an increase in non‐suitable and completely non suitable areas for soybean production at the expense of currently suitable and completely suitable areas. Non suitable areas, which currently occupy 26% of the study area, will increase to 27% in the RCP8.5 scenario by 2050. The same trends are observed in the completely non suitable areas, with 23% under current conditions and 26% under RCP8.5. It is therefore necessary to anticipate the adaptation and resilience strategies of producers in the face of future climate change.