Impact of climate change on the distribution of Sal species

Abstract

The Sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn.) of south and northern continental Southeast Asia form mono-specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous forests. These Sal forest ecosystems are the source of ecosystem services, besides harbouring rich biodiversity. The model results show that projected climate change impacts on Sal species have the potential to trigger significant ecosystem-level responses, important ramification on “Forest Management Regime” and dependent socio-economic life of Jharkhand. This paper has made an assessment of the most probable distribution zones of Shorea robusta for current (2020) and future climatic scenarios (2040) in Jharkhand using Maxent Species Distribution Modeling. It further assessed the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution area of Sal for all three agro-climatic sub-zone IV, sub-zone V and sub-zone VI in Jharkhand state under varying climatic condition. The model results display that “Mean temperature of the Driest quarter” (19.1%) ranging from 13.80 Degree Celsius to 30.40 Degree Celsius along with “Precipitation of Driest Quarter for Jharkhand” (15.8%) ranging from 14 mm to 39 mm emerged to be the most critical parameters for the distribution of S. robusta for the present climatic scenario. From the modeling, the AUC = 0.769 for the present scenario with a standard deviation of 0.045 provides an aggregate reliable measure for species performance. The result of the study shows comparable the probability distribution of S. robusta in Jharkhand to be about 13,672 sq. km which nearly match with the distribution of Sal in Jharkhand i.e. 13,314.47 sq. km with the India State Forest Report 2019.