Impact of Climate Change on Millet and Maize Yields in the Agroecological Zones of Senegal

Abstract

Climate change poses a major threat to agricultural productivity, especially in regions where crops are vulnerable to climate variations. This article examines the impact of climate change on millet and corn yields in Senegal by focusing on various agro-ecological zones and using a multiple regression model. The study analyzes the influence of specific climate variables – evapotranspiration, soil temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation – on crop yields. Results show that the model is effective for corn in eastern Senegal, where the coefficients of determination are significant, indicating predictive reliability. However, for millet, coefficients are low across all zones, reflecting limited model quality for this crop. Furthermore, findings reveal that evapotranspiration and soil temperature negatively affect corn yields in eastern Senegal, highlighting the crop’s sensitivity to heat and drought conditions. These findings contrast with some previous research that, by not disaggregating crops, arrives at less specific conclusions. This study advocates for a disaggregated approach in analyzing climate impacts, enabling a more nuanced understanding of effects by crop and zone. It also emphasizes the need to adapt agricultural practices and public policies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, ensuring the resilience of Senegal’s agricultural sector. This research ultimately recommends tailored agricultural practices and policies to mitigate negative climate effects on yields and bolster the sustainability of Senegalese agriculture.