Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

Abstract

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade (p < 0.01) across SWC. The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province. Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day−1 per decade (p < 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC. Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha-1 per decade (p < 0.05). Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased (p < 0.05) in the northeast of SWC, whereas they increased (p < 0.05) in the southwest of SWC. The gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha−1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%–24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.