IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION IN EGYPT

Abstract

Global climate change should pose serious impacts on water resources and agriculture in the future. The aim of this research was to calculate water requirements for sugarcane grown in 7 governorates in Egypt under current climate and under ongoing climate change scenario up to 2100. The results indicated that water requirements for sugarcane will increase by 12 %–18% compared to the current water use depending on governorate location., where the applied irrigation amount is expected to increase in all governorates under climate change water requirements due to long growing season (365 days) of sugar cane, its water requirements under climate change conditions increased by 11–19%. This study investigates the projected changes in evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand for sugar cane crop Middle and Upper Egypt. The mean air temperature as statistically downscaled and compared with the current climate, defined as the period 1971–2000. FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation was implemented to estimate ETo by using current climatic data. Evapotranspiration is estimated based on the predicted maximum and minimum air temperature using the RCPs scenarios (RCP2.6 – RCP4.5 – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) during three time series (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The obtained results revealed that the mean air temperatures were increased under all RCPs scenarios compared to current data. Moreover, the RCP8.5 had the highest mean air temperature compared to the other RCPs scenarios. ETo significant increased in different tested time series compared to the current ETo values. The values of irrigation water demands in long term time series (2071-2100) were higher than short term (2011-2040) or mid-term (2041-2070) with respect to the current situation. *Senior Res., Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Dokki, -Egypt The estimation of water requirements for sugar cane crops in different agro-climatic zone show that Upper Egypt region has the highest Cultivated area of sugar. Total water requirements (WR) for sugar cane during the growing seasons revealed that WR will increase under all scenarios in comparison with the current conditions. Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 4, to 4,56 billion cubic meters in or mid-term (2041-2070). Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 4,0 to 4,8 billion cubic meters in (2070-2100). This paper suggested a adaptation options for better water management for sugar cane crop Middle and Upper Egypt region, such as Gated pipe system consumed total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 2.8 to 3.26 billion cubic meters in or mid-term (2041-2070) . Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 2.9 to 3.3 billion cubic meters in 2070-2100) compare with 4,0 billion cubic meters in flooding system now.