Impact of climate change on Helicoverpa armigera voltinism in different Agro-Climatic Zones of India

Abstract

The Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) is a cosmopolitan agricultural insect pest that prefers to feed on plant’s protein biomolecules. Out of different density-independent factors, surface air temperature majorly affects the incidence and damage of the H. armigera on the crops. Early prediction of H. armigera generations (voltinism) in future climate years perhaps prevent additional damage in various crops and improve the farmers preparedness. In this study, future climate data that is temperature obtained for eleven Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZs) of India under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios in different climate years (2010, 2030, 2050, 2070, 2090) using weather file generator MarkSim web application. The accumulation of Growing Degree-days (GDD) by H. armigera at eleven ACZs in each climate year under different RCP scenarios was estimated using temperature data. The mean surface air temperature is predicted to 0.51 °C, 1.03 °C, 1.57 °C and 2.1 °C in climate years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090, which escalated annual H. armigera Gen. to 12.88, 13.33, 13.79 and 14.23, respectively over the baseline climate year 2010. Likewise, under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios H. armigera Gen. is predicted to 12.86, 13.29, 13.23 and 13.97 per annum with mean surface air temperatures 27.4 °C, 27.92 °C, 27.86 °C and 28.72 °C, respectively. The Eastern Coastal Plains and Hills Zone (ACZ 11) across climate years and RCPs has experienced a considerable increase in mean surface air temperature minimum (25.22 °C) and maximum (34.61 °C), which likely favor the GDD accumulation (6319.91) and the Genrations (14.97) in H. armigera. Therefore, the Eastern Coastal Plains and Hills Zone of India could be identified as H. armigera risk zone in near future. The present predictions in various ACZs of India may be significant in planning H. armigera management.