Abstract
The study attempts to estimate and predict climate impact on crop yields using future temperature projections under two climate emissions scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for three different time periods (2030s, 2050s and 2080s) across Agro-climatic zones (ACZ) of India. During the period 1966-2011, a significant rise was observed in both the annual mean maximum and minimum temperature across ACZs. Rainfall recorded an annual decline in Himalayan Regions and Gangetic Plains and a rise in Coastal Regions, Plateau & Hills and Western Dry Region. Our results showed high heterogeneity in climate impact on kharif and rabi crop yields (with both negative and positive estimates) across ACZs. It was found that rainfall had a positive effect on most of crop yields, but was not sufficient enough to counterbalance the impact of temperature. Changes in crop yield were more pronounced for higher emission scenario of RCP 8.5. Thus, it was evident that the relative impacts of climate change and the associated vulnerability vary by ACZs, hence comprehensive crop and region-specific adaptation measures should be emphasized that helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural system in short to medium term.
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