Abstract
Global climate change can have a significant impact on the development and sustainability of agricultural production. Climate scenarios indicate that an expected increase in air temperature in semiarid Uzbekistan can lead to an increase in evapotranspiration from agricultural fields, an increase in irrigation water requirements, and a deterioration in the ameliorative status of irrigated lands. The long-term mismanagement of irrigation practices and poor conditions of drainage infrastructure have led to an increase in the water table and its salinization level in the northwestern part of Uzbekistan. This article presents the results of an analysis of the amelioration of irrigated lands in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan as well as the modeling of the dynamics of water table depths and salinity levels using the Mann–Kendall trend test and linear regression model. The study estimated the water table depths and salinity dynamics under the impact of climate change during 2020–2050 and 2050–2100. The results show that the water table depths in the region would generally decrease (from 1.72 m in 2050 to 1.77 m by 2100 based on the Mann–Kendall trend test; from 1.75 m in 2050 to 1.79 m by 2100 according to the linear regression model), but its salinity level would increase (from 1.72 g·L−1 in 2050 to 1.85 g·L−1 by 2100 based on the Mann–Kendall trend test; from 1.97 g·L−1 in 2050 to 2.1 g·L−1 by 2100 according to the linear regression model). The results of the study provide insights into the groundwater response to climate change and assist authorities in better planning management strategies for the region.
Highlights
Central Asian countries are among the states that are vulnerable to climate change
Mean annual air temperature increases have already been observed across Central Asia due mainly to natural causes [1]
We primarily focused on irrigated lands; other land categories, including forest and pasture lands, were not considered
Summary
Central Asian countries are among the states that are vulnerable to climate change. Mean annual air temperature increases have already been observed across Central Asia due mainly to natural causes [1]. Warming trends are more pronounced in the lower elevation plains and intermountain valleys than at higher elevations [2]. The warming across Central Asia is expected to exceed the global average, with the southernmost areas experiencing a greater shift in temperatures and the northernmost parts showing a less pronounced shift. According to some climate scenarios, a 2.5 ◦ C increase is expected in the summer temperature in Central Asia towards the end of this century [3]. The annual mean precipitation in Central Asia is projected to continuously increase by
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