Abstract
Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, this study assesses the possible influence of climate change in the upstream region of the Yangtze River on droughts in the future 30 years. Long-term daily soil moisture content were simulated by VIC model at a 50 km × 50 km resolution from 1951 to 2013. Regional historical drought events were then recognized based on soil moisture anomaly percentage index and validated with field data. Five relatively independent representative global circulation models were selected and the outputs of them were downscaled temporally and spatially as the inputs of VIC model for daily soil moisture content simulations both in the period of 1971–2000 for the present-day climate and in the period of 2021–2050 for the future. The results show that the projected annual mean temperature is likely to increase from 1.4 °C to 1.8 °C. The projected change in mean annual precipitation could be increased slightly by 0.6% to 1.3%, but the trend of precipitation change in summer and autumn might be opposite of that. Comparing the drought characteristics values recognized in 1971–2000, seven to eight additional regional drought events are likely to happen in 2021–2050. Drought duration and drought intensity are also likely to extend for 18 d to 25 d and increase by 1.2% to 6.2%, respectively. But, drought area could decrease slightly by 1.3% to 2.7% on average. These changes in drought characteristics values suggest that regional drought could become more severely prolonged and frequent in future.
Highlights
Drought is one of the major natural disasters of the world
From 1953–2013, 12 regional drought events were recognized in the upstream Yangtze River
For a better understanding of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model sensitivities to to changes changesin in temperature temperature and and precipitation, precipitation, aa series series of of hypothetical hypothetical climate climate scenarios scenarios are are constructed constructed through temperature andand precipitation data, e.g., e.g., temperature changes of ∆T of through altering alteringthe thebaseline baseline temperature precipitation data, temperature changes
Summary
Drought is one of the major natural disasters of the world. According to the statistics from 1995 to2014, there were up to 327 global large-scale droughts, with an average of about 5.4 million people affected annually, and about USD 430 million in economic losses. Drought is one of the major natural disasters of the world. According to the statistics from 1995 to. 2014, there were up to 327 global large-scale droughts, with an average of about 5.4 million people affected annually, and about USD 430 million in economic losses. Compared with the values from 1961 to 1980, these are 2.6, 2.6, and 9.6 times greater, respectively [1]. Future global climate change may lead to frequent occurrences of extreme climate and weather events [2]. Climate change is projected to alter the frequency and magnitude of droughts and, in some seasons and regions, drought intensity may be further strengthened [3]. Drought occurrence and the severity of droughts are often determined by the drought index
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