Impact of climate change on dengue incidence in Singapore: time-series seasonal analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aimed to identify the meteorological factors that contribute to dengue epidemics. The monthly incidence of dengue was used as the outcome variable, while maximum temperature, humidity, precipitation, and sunshine hours were used as independent variables. The results showed a consistent increase in monthly dengue cases from 2013 to 2021, with seasonal patterns observed in stationary time-series data. The ARIMA (2, 1, 3) × seasonal (0, 1, 2)12 model was used based on its lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values. The analysis revealed that a 1-unit increase in rainfall was positively correlated with a small 0.062-unit increase in dengue cases, whereas a 1-unit increase in humidity was negatively associated, leading to a substantial reduction of approximately 16.34 cases. This study highlights the importance of incorporating weather data into national dengue prevention programs to enhance public awareness and to promote recommended safety measures.