Abstract
This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning 1971-2016. The study uses average annual temperature and rainfall to measure climate change. Besides this, CO2 emissions, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are used as the control variables. Second-generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables. Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) models are used to achieve the objective. Pedroni cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate change variables. The findings show that a rise in the temperature reduces cereal production in lower-middle-income countries. In contrast, rainfall and CO2 emissions have a positive effect on cereal production. For robustness purpose, the Driscoll-Kraay standard regression and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models have also found similar results. Dumitrescu-Hurlin test has found the bidirectional causality of cereal production with temperature and CO2 emissions. Also, unidirectional causality is running from rainfall and rural population to cereal production. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. The paper recommends that governments of the sample countries should research and develop heat-resistant varieties of cereal crops to cope with the adverse effects of temperature on cereal production and ensure food security.
Highlights
Agriculture is one of the most sensitive and extremely vulnerable sectors to climate change (Kotir, 2011)
Highest variance is for CO2 (1.42%), followed by cereal production (1.42%), land under cereal production (1.28%), average rainfall (0.64%), rural population (0.15%), and temperature (0.08%)
This paper sets out to explore the effects of climate change variables on cereal production in 11 lower-middle-income countries of the world during 1971–2016
Summary
Agriculture is one of the most sensitive and extremely vulnerable sectors to climate change (Kotir, 2011). The variability in weather and climate is a critical factor that influences the productivity of agriculture and the cropping pattern This variability in weather becomes a severe problem to sustainability in countries where agriculture sector plays a vital role in sustaining livelihood and food security (Howden et al, 2007). The variability in the climate has severe implications on agriculture in terms of the increased crop damages, low productivity and high production/operational costs. This leads to a decrease in farmers' income resulting in poverty and inequality level that would reduce the farmers’ active involvement in agriculture (Alam et al, 2012). Soil fertility can degrade by erosion, pesticides, change in cropping pattern, harvest period, and water availability (Bhardwaj et al, 2018). Adams et al (1998) argued that climatic variability and extreme events such as floods, droughts, and windstorms affect crop and livestock productivity
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