Abstract
The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part of a national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed the climate change-driven long-term concerns of developing an agricultural project in this region where groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the only source of water. Different climate models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that the maximum increase in summer is 1.68 ± 1.64 °C in 2060 and 4.65 ± 1.82 °C in 2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in water requirement for crops is estimated around 6–8.1% under RCP 4.5 while around 9.7–18.2% under RCP 8.5. Maximum reductions of strategic crop yields vary from 2.9% to 12.8% in 2060 under RCP 4.5, while from 10.4% to 27.4% in 2100 under RCP 8.5. Project goals are feasible until 2100 under RCP 4.5 but only until 2080 with RCP 8.5. When an optimization analysis was conducted, these goals are possible from 2080 to 2100 by modified land allocation. The proposed methodology is useful to project impact of climate change anywhere such that management and adaptation options can be proposed for sustainable agricultural development.
Highlights
Received: 18 December 2020Egypt has been facing major challenges due to the increase in population, limited water resources, and insufficient agriculture production
Results show that the maximum increase in temperature in summer is 1.68 ± 1.64 ◦ C in 2060 and 4.65 ± 1.82 ◦ C
More significant deficits are exhibited in 2100 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 with values of 13%, 26%, 29.5%, and 37.5%, respectively. These results clearly show while climate models have inherent uncertainty among their projections, there is a definite impact of climate change on agriculture productivity in Siwa
Summary
Egypt has been facing major challenges due to the increase in population, limited water resources, and insufficient agriculture production. Egypt-population/ accessed August 2020), an increase of 60% since the early 2000s [1]. Crop production in Egypt is insufficient for its population’s needs, where self-sufficiency values of some strategic crops such as wheat, maize, broad bean, and barley were 34.5%, 47%, 30.7%, and 86%, respectively in 2017 [3]. As a result, these concerns are the major threats to the long-run food security in Egypt
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
